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  • 01AI Factory
  • 02CPO Stack
  • 03HBM Bridge
  • 04GPU Cloud TCO
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  • 06Power Bottleneck
  • 07Custom ASIC
  • 08OCS TAM
  • 09N3 Allocation
  • 10Optical TAM
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Calculator
Atlasresearch

Workspace

WorkspacePokedexHPC MapPortfolioCalendarTaiwan RevenueMemory
Calculators
  • 01AI Factory
  • 02CPO Stack
  • 03HBM Bridge
  • 04GPU Cloud TCO
  • 05Inference Tokens
  • 06Power Bottleneck
  • 07Custom ASIC
  • 08OCS TAM
  • 09N3 Allocation
  • 10Optical TAM
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Calculators/Custom ASIC

Jason's Chips

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Inputs

Compute package

Token economics

Opex and capital

Foundry pressure

Last calculated: Not yet

Calculator 07Custom silicon TCO

Custom ASIC Economics Calculator

Convert a TPU, Trainium, MTIA, or generic XPU deployment into active accelerators, silicon and HBM bill of materials, token revenue, memory bandwidth TCO, logic wafer demand, margin, and payback.

Sensitivity

Fleet XPUs

76.2K

1.31 kW / XPU across 2.4K racks

Annual token revenue

$1.87B

$0.0800 /M realized token price

Economic cost / M tokens

$0.0231 /M

71.2% economic margin

Memory bandwidth / MW

3,657 TB/s

365.7 PB/s fleet HBM bandwidth

Hardware capex

$1.25B

$12.5M capex / active MW

Logic wafer starts

1.5K

$33.3M implied wafer spend

ASIC economics bridge

Power to tokens to dollars

Active IT base

100 MW

118 MW facility load at 1.18 PUE

XPU fleet

76.2K

1.31 kW / accelerator

Useful token rate

742.2M /s

82% utilization x 88% software yield

Revenue / MW

$18.7M

23.41BM tokens per year

Capacity conversion

Critical IT power

100 MW

Facility power

118 MW

HBM capacity

10.46 PB

Token spread

Realized price$0.0800 /M
GAAP cost$0.0182 /M
Economic cost$0.0231 /M

Silicon and memory bill

Per-XPU BoM to fleet capex

$16.4K / XPU

44%
13%
29%
13%
Line item$/XPUFleet value% capex
Compute silicon$7.3K$552M44.2%
HBM stack spend$2.2K$165M13.2%
Package, board, host$4.8K$366M29.3%
Scale-up and scale-out$2.2K$168M13.4%
Total hardware capex$16.4K$1.25B100%

Annual TCO bridge

Token revenue to economic profit

$1.33B economic profit

7%
2%
13%
Line itemAnnual dollars$/M tokens% revenue
Token revenue$1.87B$0.0800 /M100%
Colocation hosting$132M$0.0056 /M7.0%
Power pass-through$0.00$0.0000 /M0.0%
Platform operations$43.8M$0.0019 /M2.3%
Hardware depreciation$250M$0.0107 /M13.4%
Cash gross profit$1.70B$0.0725 /M90.6%
Economic profit after capital recovery$1.33B$0.0569 /M71.2%

Sensitivity analysis

Token price x utilization

$/M tokens \ Util.67%75%82% base90%97%
$0.0400 /M$0.0278 /M$0.0252 /M$0.0231 /M$0.0213 /M$0.0198 /M
$0.0600 /M$0.0278 /M$0.0252 /M$0.0231 /M$0.0213 /M$0.0198 /M
$0.0800 /M base$0.0278 /M$0.0252 /M$0.0231 /M$0.0213 /M$0.0198 /M
$0.100 /M$0.0278 /M$0.0252 /M$0.0231 /M$0.0213 /M$0.0198 /M
$0.120 /M$0.0278 /M$0.0252 /M$0.0231 /M$0.0213 /M$0.0198 /M

This grid holds rack shape, HBM, foundry yield, hosting, power, and capital assumptions fixed. It isolates the two variables that usually decide whether an internal ASIC clears the bar: useful utilization and token value.

Preset comparison

Same active power, different XPU platform

PresetkW / XPUHBM GBCapex / XPUEconomic costBandwidth / MWLogic wafers
Trn3 NL32x21.31144$16.4K$0.0231 /M3,6571.5K
Trn3 NL72x21.56144$18.7K$0.0232 /M3,0861.3K
TPU v71.09192$20.7K$0.0214 /M7,3141.7K
TPU v8AX1.83288$29.0K$0.0207 /M7,8551.3K
GB200 NVL722.08192$57.2K$0.0386 /M3,840753
Custom XPU1.50192$23.9K$0.0227 /M5,3331.4K

Assumptions

Trn3 NL32x2

GenerationTrainium3 / HBM3E 12-hi
Owner caseAWS / Anthropic training and inference
Process nodeTSMC N3P
PackageCoWoS-R organic RDL
Preset noteAir-cooled time-to-market Trainium3 SKU. It reflects 32 chips per rack, 144GB HBM3E per chip, and a cost-focused supply chain posture.
Capex / XPU$16.4K
Capex / MW$12.5M
Logic wafer spend$33.3M
Breakeven token price$0.0231 /M
Revenue / MW$18.7M
TCO / TB/s-year$1.5K

Saved scenarios

Trn3 NL32x2 base

64% margin / 1.5K wafers

$0.0290 /M

TPU v7 bandwidth case

59% margin / 1.8K wafers

$0.0340 /M

HBM4 forward XPU

52% margin / 2.4K wafers

$0.0410 /M