External OCS market
$2.06B
22.5K external boxes at $91.5K avg ASP
Jason's Chips
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Convert TPU superpod geometry, high-radix spine adoption, and medium-radix optical scale-up attach into merchant OCS units, supplier revenue, gross profit, port count, and EPS power displacement.
External OCS market
$2.06B
22.5K external boxes at $91.5K avg ASP
Lumentum OCS revenue
$1.24B
56% gross margin assumption
Lumentum units
13.6K
$55.1K LITE revenue / external box
Total OCS ports
9.77M
38.5K total OCS boxes including internal
Power savings
105.1 MW
$69.0M annual energy value
OCS gross profit
$695M
4.6 MW OCS vs 109.7 MW EPS
Revenue bridge
Google TPU Superpod OCS
$835M
TPU superpod and Google external merchant OCS demand.
High Radix Scale-Out
$126M
Spine, super-spine, and scale-across high-radix OCS.
Medium Radix Scale-Up
$280M
60-80 radix OCS used around Phase 1 optical scale-up.
| Bucket | Total boxes | Merchant boxes | LITE boxes | ASP | External market | LITE revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google TPU Superpod OCS | 28.6K | 12.9K | 7.7K | $108.0K | $1.39B | $835M |
| High Radix Scale-Out | 2.1K | 1.8K | 1.1K | $118.0K | $218M | $126M |
| Medium Radix Scale-Up | 7.8K | 7.8K | 4.8K | $58.0K | $451M | $280M |
OCS versus EPS
Total OCS boxes
38.5K
Merchant plus internal deployments
OCS power
4.6 MW
125W per optical box
EPS equivalent
109.7 MW
3,000W per packet switch
Annual energy savings
$69.0M
$75.00 / MWh at 95% load
Sensitivity analysis
| Merchant \ LITE | 45% | 53% | 60% base | 68% | 75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | $824M | $893M | $963M | $1.03B | $1.10B |
| 38% | $928M | $1.02B | $1.10B | $1.19B | $1.28B |
| 45% base | $1.03B | $1.14B | $1.24B | $1.35B | $1.45B |
| 53% | $1.14B | $1.26B | $1.38B | $1.50B | $1.62B |
| 60% | $1.24B | $1.38B | $1.52B | $1.66B | $1.80B |
This grid isolates the two variables that matter most while Google is still the dominant buyer: how much of TPU superpod demand moves external and how much of that merchant demand Lumentum captures.
Preset comparison
| Preset | External boxes | External market | LITE revenue | Gross profit | Power savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY26 Google | 6.2K | $652M | $330M | $182M | 51.5 MW |
| CY27 run-rate | 22.5K | $2.06B | $1.24B | $695M | 105.1 MW |
| Conservative | 8.9K | $883M | $460M | $244M | 63.3 MW |
| Scale-up Phase 1 | 29.9K | $2.38B | $1.42B | $798M | 123.1 MW |