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Calculator 10Pluggable optics

Optical Transceiver TAM Calculator

Convert AI accelerator deployments into 400G, 800G, 1.6T, and 3.2T pluggable module units, module TAM, DSP revenue, laser source revenue, supplier read-throughs, and power displaced by CPO or LPO.

Sensitivity

Pluggable module TAM

$32.14B

$1.1K blended ASP across selected generation mix

Pluggable modules

29.4M

33.4M before CPO displacement

Module power

725 MW

24.7 W average module power

PAM4 DSP revenue

$5.93B

25.9M retimed modules after LPO share

Laser source revenue

$1.62B

38% EML / 50% SiPh mix

CPO power avoided

79 MW

4.01M modules avoided by CPO

Generation bridge

800G, 1.6T, and 3.2T module ramp

400G

$230M

588K modules at $390.00 ASP and 8 W each.

800G

$6.99B

9.71M modules at $720.00 ASP and 15 W each.

1.6T

$22.80B

18.2M modules at $1.3K ASP and 29 W each.

3.2T

$2.12B

883K modules at $2.4K ASP and 52 W each.

Generation	Mix	Modules	ASP	Revenue	DSP revenue	Bandwidth	Power
400G	2%	588K	$390.00	$230M	$33.7M	235.4 Pb/s	5 MW
800G	33%	9.71M	$720.00	$6.99B	$1.15B	7,768.0 Pb/s	146 MW
1.6T	62%	18.2M	$1.3K	$22.80B	$4.33B	29,189.0 Pb/s	529 MW
3.2T	3%	883K	$2.4K	$2.12B	$404M	2,824.7 Pb/s	46 MW

Component revenue

Module ASP split

PAM4 DSP

$5.93B

Laser source

$1.62B

Driver / TIA

$2.49B

Assembly / residual

$22.12B

Supplier read-through

Module supplier revenue$4.82B

DSP supplier revenue$2.25B

Laser supplier revenue$743M

Assembly supplier revenue$4.42B

Total component revenue$10.03B

Laser mix

VCSEL, EML, and silicon photonics exposure

VCSEL short-reach

$113M

12% of modules, $32.00 content per module.

EML InP source

$738M

38% of modules, $66.00 content per module.

SiPh / CW laser

$765M

50% of modules, $52.00 content per module.

Sensitivity

CPO displacement vs 1.6T mix

CPO / 1.6T mix	42%	62% base	82%	102%
2%	$32.32B	$35.80B	$39.27B	$41.49B
12% base	$29.02B	$32.14B	$35.26B	$37.26B
22%	$25.73B	$28.49B	$31.26B	$33.02B
32%	$22.43B	$24.84B	$27.25B	$28.79B

Preset comparison

Built-in optics cases

Case	Modules	Module TAM	DSP	Laser	Power
CY26 overlap800G stays strong while 1.6T moves into volume ramps.	23.7M	$25.36B	$4.72B	$1.37B	504 MW
CY27 1.6T1.6T becomes the primary AI transceiver generation.	29.4M	$32.14B	$5.93B	$1.62B	725 MW
CY30 pathPluggables remain large even as CPO and LPO absorb high-end ports.	47.7M	$51.13B	$9.25B	$2.34B	1,421 MW
Supply crunchEML and InP bottlenecks keep pricing firmer and lift component value.	27.9M	$35.90B	$6.76B	$2.04B	650 MW

Generation

Mix

Modules

ASP

Revenue

DSP revenue

Bandwidth

Power

400G

588K

$390.00

$230M

$33.7M

235.4 Pb/s

5 MW

800G

33%

9.71M

$720.00

$6.99B

$1.15B

7,768.0 Pb/s

146 MW

1.6T

62%

18.2M

$1.3K

$22.80B

$4.33B

29,189.0 Pb/s

529 MW

3.2T

883K

$2.4K

$2.12B

$404M

2,824.7 Pb/s

46 MW

CPO / 1.6T mix

42%

62% base

82%

102%

$32.32B

$35.80B

$39.27B

$41.49B

12% base

$29.02B

$32.14B

$35.26B

$37.26B

22%

$25.73B

$28.49B

$31.26B

$33.02B

32%

$22.43B

$24.84B

$27.25B

$28.79B

Case

Modules

Module TAM

DSP

Laser

Power

CY26 overlap800G stays strong while 1.6T moves into volume ramps.

23.7M

$25.36B

$4.72B

$1.37B

504 MW

CY27 1.6T1.6T becomes the primary AI transceiver generation.

29.4M

$32.14B

$5.93B

$1.62B

725 MW

CY30 pathPluggables remain large even as CPO and LPO absorb high-end ports.

47.7M

$51.13B

$9.25B

$2.34B

1,421 MW

Supply crunchEML and InP bottlenecks keep pricing firmer and lift component value.

27.9M

$35.90B

$6.76B

$2.04B

650 MW