Available AI N3 wafers
715K
936K wafers required by selected AI programs
Jason's Chips
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Convert TSMC N3 wafer supply, smartphone reallocation, AI program demand, HBM stacks, and advanced package capacity into fulfilled accelerator shipments, shortfalls, and foundry revenue.
Available AI N3 wafers
715K
936K wafers required by selected AI programs
N3 wafer shortfall
221K
76% of requested front-end wafer demand covered
System-feasible units
7.11M
8.38M front-end fulfilled before HBM/package gates
Phone release wafers
43.7K
243K Rubin-equivalent or 599K TPU-equivalent units
Binding bottleneck
N3 front-end
85% package coverage, 100% HBM coverage
Foundry revenue
$16.51B
$23.1K average allocated wafer ASP
Allocation bridge
Base AI allocation
638K
58% of N3 nameplate
Phone release
43.7K
10% of smartphone N3 pool
Utilization lift
33.0K
Effective output above nameplate
AI wafer pool
715K
65% of N3 output before external relief
Shortfall
221K
Demand above allocation
| Program | Requested | Required wafers | Allocated wafers | Fulfilled units | Shortfall | HBM stacks | Foundry revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Rubin GPUNVIDIA | N3P | priority 100 | 2.00M | 360K | 296K | 1.64M | 358K | 13.1M | $7.09B |
| Google TPU v7/v8Google | N3E / N3P | priority 95 | 4.50M | 329K | 256K | 3.51M | 990K | 28.1M | $5.76B |
| AWS Trainium3AWS | N3P | priority 88 | 2.20M | 99.0K | 71.5K | 1.59M | 611K | 6.36M | $1.57B |
| AMD MI350/MI400AMD | N3 / N3P | priority 72 | 900K | 108K | 63.8K | 532K | 368K | 4.26M | $1.50B |
| AI networking siliconSwitch / DSP | N3 family | priority 84 | 1.60M | 40.0K | 27.6K | 1.10M | 497K | 0 | $579M |
Program pressure
Rubin
360K
1.64M fulfilled at 82% front-end coverage.
TPU
329K
3.51M fulfilled at 78% front-end coverage.
Trn3
99.0K
1.59M fulfilled at 72% front-end coverage.
AMD
108K
532K fulfilled at 59% front-end coverage.
Network
40.0K
1.10M fulfilled at 69% front-end coverage.
Downstream gating
N3 front-end
76%
936K wafers requested
Packages
85%
1.16M unit shortfall
HBM stacks
100%
0 stack shortfall
Read-through
Sensitivity
| Phone / AI share | 48% | 58% base | 68% | 78% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 375K | 265K | 155K | 44.5K |
| 10% base | 331K | 221K | 111K | 800 |
| 20% | 287K | 177K | 67.1K | 0 |
| 30% | 243K | 133K | 23.4K | 0 |
Preset comparison
| Case | AI wafers | Shortfall | Feasible units | Bottleneck | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY26 squeezeAI demand moves onto N3 before consumer demand fully releases. | 715K | 221K | 7.11M | N3 front-end | $16.51B |
| CY27 crowd-outAI wafers approach the overwhelming majority of N3 output. | 1.29M | 210K | 11.4M | Advanced packaging | $29.12B |
| Phone releaseA weak handset cycle releases meaningful N3 starts to AI customers. | 780K | 155K | 7.87M | N3 front-end | $18.03B |
| HBM gateFoundry supply improves, but HBM stack supply becomes the binding gate. | 990K | 170K | 6.79M | HBM stacks | $22.42B |